Roma's Success in Serie A's Battle for Fifth Could Cost Milan and Juventus But Won't Affect Inter

Two recent developments are worth noting for Serie A fans. First, next season's UEFA Champions League will expand, and the UEFA competition committee has announced the revenue distribution details for the upcoming season. Secondly, given the current standings, it seems highly likely that Serie A will secure five Champions League spots next season. This means the end of the Serie A season will not only be about the race for the top four but also for the fifth spot. Following the announcement of the revenue distribution details, experts have been crunching the numbers: Will the addition of a fifth team to share the pie affect the earnings of the other four? If so, how? Financial analysts have concluded that Inter Milan would prefer Roma to secure the fifth spot for Champions League qualification because if Roma does so, they will take revenue from the second to fourth-placed teams (AC Milan, Juventus) without impacting Inter’s earnings.

As the Serie A season winds down, the championship race lacks suspense, with the competition for Champions League qualification being the main attraction. The three northern giants—Inter, AC Milan, and Juventus—look set to secure their places in the Champions League. Bologna, with 59 points, is in fourth place, followed by Roma with 55 points (with a game in hand against Udinese), Atalanta with 51 points (also with a game in hand against Fiorentina), and Napoli and Lazio with 49 points each. These teams will fiercely compete for one or two remaining Champions League spots.

In modern Serie A, the financial differences between having Champions League football and missing out are vast. Therefore, these crucial battles at the end of the season are closely watched by millions of fans across the Apennines. One key question for Inter supporters is: Who would they prefer to succeed? This preference isn't based on emotional bias, like admiration for managers like Maurizio Sarri or players like Paulo Dybala and Romelu Lukaku, but rather on what benefits Inter the most.

If next season's Champions League distribution mechanism follows this season's model, Inter naturally wouldn't want Roma to succeed because Roma’s qualification would significantly reduce Inter's share of the pie. Currently, Inter sits sixth in UEFA’s club coefficients with 101 points, while Roma is eighth with 97 points, far ahead of Napoli (17th) and Lazio (31st). Should Roma qualify for the Champions League, their higher historical coefficient would grant them a larger share of the revenue, reducing the amount available for other Serie A clubs.

However, the revamped Champions League next season changes the landscape. After a detailed analysis of the new revenue distribution mechanism, Calcio e Finanza concluded that if Roma qualifies as the fifth-placed team, it would significantly reduce the earnings of AC Milan and Juventus but not affect Inter’s share. Next season, the total Champions League revenue is estimated to be around €2.5 billion, up from €2 billion for the 2023-24 season. Traditionally, Serie A clubs have only shared the "pool" of Italian teams, not participating in the shares of English, Spanish, or German teams. With the cake split into five pieces instead of four, each slice becomes smaller. Since teams with higher coefficients like Roma have a higher allocation share, their participation impacts the distribution more significantly.

Next season’s revenue distribution will undergo a major overhaul. Without delving into all the specifics, the key point is this: Inter is already confirmed as a top seed for the Champions League group stage next season. The Nerazzurri will join a different distribution group and won't be in the same pool as Serie A’s second to fifth-placed teams. Therefore, no matter who wins the race for fifth, Inter’s earnings won't be significantly impacted. Instead, it’s the earnings of the second to fourth-placed teams that will be affected.

This means that regardless of whether Roma, Napoli, or Lazio secures the fifth spot, Inter's direct revenue remains unaffected. Of course, there will be indirect impacts. Given Inter's historic rivalry with AC Milan and Juventus, any reduction in their financial power due to Roma's success indirectly benefits Inter. As the European leagues reach their final stages, the battle for Champions League spots intensifies. While some of these battles may seem irrelevant to Inter, they still impact the Nerazzurri's interests.

For example, recently, many Inter fans found themselves cheering for Marseille in a crucial match, illustrating how external battles can have significant implications. The fight for the fifth spot in Serie A is another such scenario. Although Inter has already secured its Champions League spot and may seem like a mere spectator in this race, the implications of who secures that final spot are substantial.

The expanded Champions League format and the new revenue distribution mechanisms mean that next season will bring fresh challenges and opportunities for all Serie A teams. For Inter, the hope is that Roma’s success in securing the fifth spot would siphon revenue away from their closest rivals, AC Milan and Juventus, without diminishing their own share. This scenario adds an extra layer of intrigue and excitement for Inter fans as they watch the conclusion of the Serie A season unfold, hoping for outcomes that favor their long-term interests.