Copa del Rey Semifinals: Atlético Madrid's Triple Struggle, Athletic Bilbao Embraces VAR

This season, Atlético Madrid and Athletic Bilbao find themselves battling on multiple fronts. Both teams are competing for a top-four finish in La Liga and a coveted spot in next season’s Champions League, with Atlético currently fourth and Bilbao fifth, separated by just three points. In addition to their league aspirations, the two clubs are also locked in a fierce battle in the Copa del Rey semifinals. Atlético Madrid advanced to this stage by knocking out Real Madrid in the Round of 16, while Athletic Bilbao triumphed over Barcelona in the quarterfinals. Remarkably, both teams defeated these giants by identical 4-2 scores in extra time after 2-2 draws in regulation.

First Leg Drama and Controversies

The first leg of the Copa del Rey semifinal saw Atlético Madrid facing a series of misfortunes. Early in the match, Bilbao’s intricate midfield play sliced through Atlético’s defense. A clever feint and pass by Bilbao’s striker Rodriguez deceived both Axel Witsel and Pablo Barrios, leaving them scrambling to locate the ball as it penetrated Atlético's penalty area. The confusion culminated in defender Reinildo Mandava’s rushed tackle on Bilbao's Diaz, who had just entered the box. With only one foot inside the area, Diaz was fouled, resulting in a penalty which Bilbao converted to take the lead.

Atlético Madrid had their own chances to earn penalties, with at least three incidents that could have gone their way. Two potential handball incidents in Bilbao’s box were dismissed by the referee, Hernandez Hernandez, with only about a 30% chance of being awarded. However, a collision involving Antoine Griezmann after a header seemed to have a higher probability, around 50%, of being deemed a penalty. Despite this, none of these appeals were successful, leading to boos from the home crowd.

In stoppage time, Alvaro Morata was brought down in the box by Yeray Alvarez, who had only been on the field for nine minutes. Hernandez Hernandez initially awarded the penalty, but VAR intervened, suspecting an offside in the buildup. After a three-minute review, it was confirmed that Morata’s knee was offside, nullifying the penalty and leaving Atlético fans in despair.

Recent Form and Fitness Concerns

Both teams have been struggling with form recently. Athletic Bilbao's last La Liga outing ended in a surprising 1-3 defeat to Real Betis, a team not known for their attacking prowess. Bilbao managed only three shots on goal, a dismal performance by their standards. Meanwhile, Atlético Madrid played to a 2-2 draw with bottom-placed Almería, squandering leads twice. This uncharacteristic defensive frailty has been attributed to the fatigue of juggling Champions League, La Liga, and Copa del Rey commitments.

Diego Simeone opted to rest key players such as Morata, Witsel, and Saul Niguez in the match against Almería, which might explain the disappointing result. Despite this, Atlético’s rotated squad still boasted significantly more quality than their opponents, highlighting the impact of fatigue and perhaps a lack of focus.

Tactical Breakdown and Key Players

Athletic Bilbao’s success this season against Atlético Madrid has been built on their solid defensive performances, having kept clean sheets in both their league encounter and the first leg of this semifinal. Their defense, marshaled by Inigo Martinez and supported by the industrious midfield duo of Dani Garcia and Mikel Vesga, has been resolute. The creativity of Iker Muniain and the finishing prowess of Inaki Williams have been crucial in their attack.

For Atlético Madrid, Antoine Griezmann’s potential absence due to injury is a significant blow. Even if fit, Simeone might choose to rest him ahead of their crucial Champions League Round of 16 second leg against Inter Milan. In Griezmann’s potential absence, the onus will fall on Joao Felix and Morata to lead the attack. Yannick Carrasco’s dribbling and Koke’s midfield control will also be vital for breaking down Bilbao’s organized defense.

Tactical Adjustments and Strategies

Simeone will need to carefully balance his squad’s fitness and tactical approach. Given their recent defensive lapses, reinforcing the backline while maintaining an attacking threat will be essential. Witsel and Saul Niguez, if included, will need to anchor the midfield, providing stability and supporting the defense. Simeone may opt for a 4-4-2 formation, with Felix and Morata leading the line and Carrasco and Marcos Llorente providing width.

Athletic Bilbao, under the guidance of Marcelino Garcia Toral, are likely to stick with their tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation. The pace and directness of Williams on the counter-attack will be their primary weapon, with Muniain tasked with creating opportunities. Their full-backs, Oscar De Marcos and Yuri Berchiche, will need to balance their defensive duties with supporting the attack.

Predictions and Anticipations

Considering the form and fitness issues facing both teams, the second leg of this semifinal promises to be a tightly contested affair. Atlético Madrid’s home advantage and the potential return of key players could give them the edge, but Athletic Bilbao’s recent successes against them and their solid defensive record cannot be overlooked. A 1-1 draw seems a likely outcome, potentially allowing Bilbao to advance to the final on aggregate.

Broader Implications

The outcome of this semifinal will have significant implications for both clubs. For Atlético Madrid, a victory would not only boost their morale but also reinforce their status as a top contender in Spanish football. It would also provide a much-needed lift ahead of their Champions League commitments. For Athletic Bilbao, reaching the Copa del Rey final would be a testament to their progress under Marcelino and could serve as a springboard for future success.

Both clubs will need to navigate the challenges of squad rotation, tactical adjustments, and the psychological pressures of high-stakes matches. The presence of VAR adds another layer of complexity, with its ability to overturn decisions and influence the game's outcome.

As the second leg approaches, fans can expect a tense, hard-fought battle between two determined sides. The result will hinge on key moments, individual brilliance, and tactical nous. Whether Atlético Madrid can overcome their recent struggles and advance to the final, or if Athletic Bilbao will continue their impressive run, remains to be seen. One thing is certain: the Copa del Rey semifinal promises drama, excitement, and memorable moments.